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OpeOluwani Akintayo
Lagos — World oil demand growth for 2019 was revised lower by around 0.08 mb/d and 0.06 mb/d respectively, according to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report, MOMR for September.
The report says the downward demand is primarily as a result of a slower than expected performance from both the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD and non-OECD during the first half of 2019, 1H19.
The downward revision also accounts for the latest economic outlook for 2019 and 2020 oil demand data. World oil demand growth in 2019 is now pegged at 1.02 mb/d, with total global consumption at 99.84 mb/d.
In the OECD, anticipated 2019 oil demand growth has been revised downward by 0.03 mb/d after considering trends from latest available historical information and the most recent economic outlook.
Oil demand in 1H19 has been resilient in Americas, but it remained in negative territory in Europe and the Asia Pacific.
OECD America oil demand data implied gains during June with support from industrial and transportation fuels, particularly related to the consumption of NGL/LPG, jet kerosene and diesel fuel. While oil demand growth was revised slightly downward for 1Q19, overall 1H19 oil demand exhibited a healthy performance.
OECD Europe incremental oil demand remains in negative territory for 1H19 and is expected to follow the same declining y-o-y trend for 2H19.
Expectations for the OECD Asia Pacific have been lowered further. This is due to declining activities in the petrochemical industry in Japan and South Korea, with challenges related to international trade leading to less oil requirements.
In the non-OECD region, based on the latest available data, oil demand growth in 2019 was adjusted lower by 0.05 mb/d, primarily due to a weaker than expected performance from Other Asia and Middle East in 2Q19. Smaller downward revisions were also seen in Latin America and China.
In Other Asia, oil demand growth in 2019 was adjusted downward by around 0.02 mb/d, mainly reflecting slower-than-expected oil demand in India, as well as various other countries in the region, such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.
In the Middle East, oil demand in 2019 was revised lower by around 0.02 mb/d, due to economic restructuring plans, including subsidy reductions.
World oil demand growth for 2020 was also revised lower by 0.06 mb/d compared to the previous report.
This is in light of downward economic revisions to various regions and countries, as well as adjustments to the baseline data.
World oil demand growth in 2020 is now anticipated to increase by 1.08 mb/d, with total global consumption reaching 100.92 mb/d.
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