For two decades, the American Automobile Association (AAA) has engaged in an annual ritual: predicting how many Americans will travel over the Memorial Day holiday weekend – long considered the unofficial start of the summer travel season.
AAA reported last week that, for the first time in 20 years, it will refrain from issuing a Memorial Day forecast. The organization pointed out that COVID-19 has undermined the accuracy of the economic data upon which it relies to make the travel projection. It added that anecdotal reports suggest fewer people will hit the road this Memorial Day weekend, citing a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommendation that Americans avoid nonessential travel. Given international travel restrictions, AAA expects that vacationers will focus on local and regional U.S. destinations.
“Last year, 43 million Americans traveled for Memorial Day Weekend – the second-highest travel volume on record since AAA began tracking holiday travel volumes in 2000,” remarked AAA Travel Senior Vice President Paula Twidale in a written statement. “With social distancing guidelines still in practice, this holiday weekend’s travel volume is likely to set a record low.”
According to AAA, the current record-holder for lowest travel volume is Memorial Day 2009 – toward the end of the Great Recession – with nearly 31 million travelers. Americans took approximately 85 percent of the 2009 Memorial Day trips by car, the not-for-profit organization added.
To be sure, AAA also noted there are signs of an uptick in Americans’ willingness to travel. The organization reports a modest increase in its online travel bookings since mid-April.
“The saying goes that the journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step,” continued Twidale. “Americans are taking that first step toward their next journey from the comfort of their home by researching vacation opportunities and talking with travel agents. We are seeing that Americans are showing a preference and inspiration to explore all that our country has to offer as soon as it is safe to travel.”
On Monday, AAA also revealed that Americans who decide to venture out on the country’s highways and byways will be rewarded with the cheapest Memorial Day pump prices in nearly two decades. Although the national gasoline price has been on the rise, AAA stated that it currently averages $1.87 per gallon - $1 cheaper than the average price at this time in 2019. Memorial Day 2003 was the last time the national average gasoline price was below $2 per gallon; it was an just $1.50 per gallon then, AAA pointed out.
“Gas prices around Memorial Day have not been this cheap in nearly 20 years,” stated Jeanette Casselano, AAA spokesperson. “However, as the country continues to practice social distancing, this year’s unofficial kick-off to summer is not going to drive the typical millions of Americans to travel.”
Assuming travel restrictions ease and businesses reopen, AAA noted that it plans to make travel projections in the late summer and fall. It also expects to resume its tradition of making a Memorial Day travel forecast next year.
To contact the author, email mveazey@rigzone.com.
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