Oil Dips as OPEC+ Starts to Unwind Cuts

(Bloomberg) -- Oil edged below $40 a barrel in New York as OPEC and allied producers started supplying more crude to a global market where many countries are still struggling to contain the coronavirus.

OPEC+ will pump about 1.5 million barrels more this month than in July as it starts to unwind its historic virus-driven output curbs, with Russia already having lifted its output slightly last month. The increase in supply comes as virus cases accelerated in California, a lockdown is being reimposed in Manila, and Australia’s second-biggest city instituted a curfew to stem the spread.

Meanwhile, tensions between Washington and Beijing continued to simmer, with U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo flagging measures against “a broad array” of Chinese-owned software deemed to pose national-security risks.

Oil has rebounded from a plunge below zero in April, but the rally has stalled near $40 a barrel with rising infections raising concerns about a sustained recovery in consumption. It’s a precarious time for producers to be adding more supply to the market, with Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp. predicting there may not be a full demand recovery until next year.

“Demand is in question,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets Asia Pacific in Sydney, adding that the easing of the OPEC+ cuts had already been priced in. “We have also got concerns about the rising tensions between U.S. and China.”

Pompeo’s comments suggest a possible widening of U.S. measures beyond TikTok, the popular music-video app owned by ByteDance Ltd., one of China’s biggest tech companies. President Donald Trump told reporters Friday that he plans to ban TikTok from the U.S., but his decision hasn’t been announced. Pompeo signaled he expects a Trump announcement “shortly.” Chinese newspapers slammed a potential ban on TikTok.

Prices

West Texas Intermediate for September delivery fell 0.9% to $39.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 7:50 a.m. London time after rising 2.6% in July Brent for October settlement slipped 0.7% to $43.20 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after adding 0.6% on Friday Crude futures fell 2.5% to 279.1 yuan a barrel on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange

The futures curve is signaling weakness, with WTI’s three-month timespread near the widest contango since May, indicating there are some concerns about over-supply. The market structure is where near-dated contracts are cheaper than later-date ones.

Meanwhile, U.S. shale explorers reduced drilling last week after a gain in oil prices failed to revive confidence. The number of active rigs fell by 1 to 180, bringing it back to the lowest level since June 2009, according to Baker Hughes Co. data released Friday.

To contact the reporters on this story:
Saket Sundria in Singapore at ssundria@bloomberg.net;
James Thornhill in Sydney at jthornhill3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Serene Cheong at scheong20@bloomberg.net
Ben Sharples, Andrew Janes