What Could an Oil Super-Cycle Mean for USA Producers?

(The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the attributed sources and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rigzone or the author.)

Improving oil demand in India, the status of Iran nuclear talks, and a scenario outlined by a high-ranking Saudi official might figure prominently in oil and gas market developments this week, informed market-watchers told Rigzone. The panelists elaborate in the comments below.

John Stilwell, Principal-in-Charge, Energy – Power and Utilities, Grant Thornton LLP: Several external factors should be monitored closely. First, is the rapid spread of the coronavirus continuing in large importers of crude like India. Second, is the status of negotiations reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and the direct impact on that supply returning to market. Finally, how will negotiations on the U.S. infrastructure bill impact investments in renewables and the energy sector as a whole? These primary factors will be the focus on external impacts to trends in the coming weeks.

Tom McNulty, Houston-based Principal and Energy Practice leader with Valuescope, Inc.: Players will talk their book. Look at Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. He is warning against a “new super-cycle in global oil prices” caused by weak new investments in oil. Brent is up 43% so far this year. Why would that be an issue for him, given that the Saudis would make a lot of money if oil continues to go up? Because it will cause market entry by players outside of the OPEC+ universe, and probably cause U.S. production to accelerate.

Mark Le Dain, vice president of strategy with the oil and gas data firm Validere: Oil is continuing its uptrend despite recent weakness in the commodities trade and a stronger U.S. dollar. This strength in spite of these dynamics is impressive and likely points to continued momentum in the energy complex in the fall – despite a fundamental picture that may be weaker than expected, particularly with recent declining refining margins. 

To contact the author, email mveazey@rigzone.com.